Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
